Data & Methodology

Sources

• Jolpica-F1 (Ergast-compatible) — structured history. Licensed CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 for non-commercial use. Requests identify this app via User-Agent.
• OpenF1 — optional live/session feed. Browser never calls it directly.
• FastF1 — optional local telemetry adapter. MIT applies to software, not upstream data rights.

Coverage states

AVAILABLE · PARTIAL · UNAVAILABLE · DERIVED · ESTIMATED / MODEL_DERIVED. Missing inputs display Unavailable. Nothing is fabricated.

Analytics

Race pace uses mean classified finishing position inverted to a 0–100 scale. Consistency is 100·exp(−CV) of finishing positions (n≥3). Reliability is classified finishes / starts. Teammate delta is mean finish difference versus teammate in shared races. Genome wet/braking/cornering/tyre scores stay Unavailable without weather or telemetry.

Predictions & leakage

Features for race R use only races with (season, round) strictly before R. Softmax over a linear strength score plus Monte Carlo finishing-order noise yields win/podium/DNF probabilities. Models are versioned. Backtests walk forward by season.

Historical context

Points systems, sprint weekends and regulation eras are stored per season. Raw career points are not treated as comparable across eras.