Debrief
Driver
Next race model
Round 18
Title chance
87.9%
Prediction breakdown
94.0%
P1 (MC) · P2 0.1% · P3 0.0%
Expected finish
P2.17
Podium
94.2%
Top 5
94.2%
DNF risk
5.9%
Why this prediction
Strength model inputs
| Factor | Raw stat | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recent form (last 5 races) | P2.4 avg | ×1.25 | 23.25 |
| Race pace (last 8 finishes) | P2.3 avg | ×1.15 | 21.56 |
| Team pace (last 10 finishes) | P3.2 avg | ×0.95 | 16.91 |
| Qualifying (up to 16 sessions) | P3.4 avg · n=16 | ×1.35 | 23.71 |
| Team qualifying | P4.8 avg | ×0.7 | 11.33 |
| Sprint form (up to 12 sprints) | P5.8 avg · n=12 | ×0.95 | 14.41 |
| Team sprint | P4.5 avg | ×0.4 | 6.60 |
| This weekend grid | — | ×0 | 0.00 |
| This weekend sprint | — | ×0 | 0.00 |
| weekend_practice | — | ×0 | 0.00 |
| quali_vs_race | — | ×0.35 | 1.20 |
| tyre_degradation | — | ×1.05 | -0.68 |
| Circuit history | P10.3 avg | ×0.65 | 6.94 |
| Reliability | 94% finishes | ×8 | 7.53 |
| Teammate delta | +3.4 vs teammate | ×0.6 | 2.01 |
| Track type | permanent | ×0.45 | 0.00 |
| Total strength | 134.77 | ||
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